Mortgage Market Update — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Market Snapshot

Bonds caught a break this morning. The August inflation reading (PCE) came in cooler than expected, with headline inflation dropping from 3.7% to 3.4% year over year and core down to 3.0%. Mortgage bonds pushed higher on the news. The 10-year Treasury tested 5.29% yesterday and held, now sitting around 5.27%.

What's Driving It

Three things worth knowing. First, the cooler inflation number is helping bonds, though part of the drop came from measurement adjustments, not just real price relief. Second, the economy is still running warm: second quarter GDP was revised up to 2.2%, and September added 90,000 private-sector jobs, more than expected. Third, the Fed's Williams signaled no rush after September's rate hike, with one more hike likely this year, probably December.

The MBA reports average mortgage rates moved from 7.12% to 7.30% this week. Purchase applications are down 14% from a year ago. Refinance share sits at 38%, mostly cash-out debt consolidations and adjustable-rate mortgages are above 10% share, which tells you buyers are getting creative.

Local Take

Here in Clark County, this is a market that rewards preparation over timing. Inflation cooling is good news for bonds, but a strong economy and the chance of another Fed hike in December keep a lid on how far rates can fall. If you're buying in Vancouver, Camas, or Battle Ground, the move is the same: get fully underwritten now so you can act when the right house shows up, and know your payment at today's rates, not hoped-for ones.

Bottom Line

Bonds are holding support and the inflation data helped. The guidance is to float for now. But the bigger economy is still strong, so don't bank on a straight line down. Plan on today's numbers, and anything better is a win.

Bill Black, Senior Mortgage Broker, Northwest Funding Group Inc. | NMLS 49242 (Company NMLS 101770) | Licensed in WA, OR, AZ.

Today's rates: https://www.billcblack.com/rates